I can't get the PDF to download, so I haven't read the SOW. I concur, however, that the feasibility of ramping up LNG imports will be pretty key to expanded use of natural gas in the future; AEO 2007 predicts going from 0.6 tcf to 4.5 tcf (2005-2030). If LNG doesn't grow along those lines (for whatever reason), it'd likely make gas a lot more expensive.

Here's the kicker to me, though: While Pacala and Socolow suggest converting baseload coal to baseload gas as one way of obtaining a wedge of avoided emissions, AEO 2007 anticipates a declining use of gas for electric generation (OK, peaking in 2018 or so, and dropping back to about current levels, but still incompatible with obtaining a wedge). Obviously, what gas prices and availability do is going to be critical to the future viability of converting coal plants to gas. Around here, the idea of baseload gas seems a little contradictory to begin with! Short version: I agree; these are pretty critical questions, though they need to be considered in the context of possible carbon constraints that might make coal even less viable.

(Disclosure: I work for a gas utility.)

Great comment Nick!  Thanks!

For those confused by the alphabet soup or new readers:

AEO = Annual Energy Outlook which is published by the EIA (Energy Information Administration) which is itself run by the DOE (Department of Energy).